Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Politics · 3 markets
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Vol total$16.1M
Vol 24h$93K
Liquidity$531K
Resolves90d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first3 questions
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 1, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.