All predictions
Tech & AI · Ends Jun 30
Anthropic lab leak by...?
Most likely: June 30, 2027 at 7%, then December 31, 2026 at 2%.
What do you think happens?
Each line is its own yes-or-no question.
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
Your money, explained
Put $10 on “June 30, 2027” at 7% → if it happens you get $142.86 (+$132.86). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.
How it's decided
It's settled by the official result. Each answer closes on its own date, shown when you pick it.
Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$167K traded since it opened · $1K today