All events
Politics · 46 markets

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Vol total$296K
Vol 24h$7K
Liquidity$574K
Resolves241d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇫🇷
Marine Le Pen
$25K vol·+1%·7d
88.0%
chance
Yes 88¢ · No 12¢
🇫🇷
Jordan Bardella
$21K vol·-5%·7d
12.6%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🇫🇷
Laurent Wauquiez
$20K vol
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Édouard Philippe
$14K vol·+3%·7d
84.5%
chance
Yes 85¢ · No 16¢
🇫🇷
Sarah Knafo
$14K vol·+2%·7d
41.5%
chance
Yes 42¢ · No 59¢
🎯
Matthieu Pigasse
$13K vol·-4%·7d
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Dominique de Villepin
$11K vol·+5%·7d
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🇫🇷
François Hollande
$10K vol
30.5%
chance
Yes 31¢ · No 70¢
🇫🇷
Gabriel Attal
$10K vol·-7%·7d
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🇫🇷
Raphaël Glucksmann
$10K vol·+13%·7d
66.0%
chance
Yes 66¢ · No 34¢
🇫🇷
Bruno Retailleau
$9K vol·+2%·7d
76.5%
chance
Yes 77¢ · No 24¢
🇫🇷
François Asselineau
$9K vol·-1%·7d
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢
🇫🇷
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$9K vol·+0%·7d
95.0%
chance
Yes 95¢ · No 5¢
🇫🇷
Bernard Cazeneuve
$9K vol·-1%·7d
11.5%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 89¢
🎯
Michel-Edouard Leclerc
$8K vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🇫🇷
Éric Zemmour
$8K vol·+1%·7d
57.0%
chance
Yes 57¢ · No 43¢
🇫🇷
Marine Tondelier
$7K vol·-3%·7d
27.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 73¢
🇫🇷
Nathalie Arthaud
$7K vol·-4%·7d
85.5%
chance
Yes 86¢ · No 14¢
🇫🇷
David Lisnard
$7K vol·-3%·7d
55.5%
chance
Yes 56¢ · No 45¢
🇫🇷
Juan Branco
$7K vol·+1%·7d
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🎯
Bally Bagayoko
$7K vol·-1%·7d
3.0%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
François Bayrou
$5K vol·+0%·7d
5.9%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Xavier Bertrand
$5K vol·-6%·7d
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🇫🇷
Jérôme Guedj
$5K vol·-1%·7d
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🇫🇷
Gérald Darmanin
$4K vol·-3%·7d
3.6%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Fabien Roussel
$4K vol·-1%·7d
81.0%
chance
Yes 81¢ · No 19¢
🇫🇷
Philippe de Villiers
$4K vol·-3%·7d
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Olivier Faure
$4K vol·+14%·7d
20.4%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 80¢
🇫🇷
Manuel Bompard
$3K vol·-1%·7d
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🇫🇷
Karim Bouamrane
$3K vol·+2%·7d
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🇫🇷
Carole Delga
$3K vol
3.4%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Jean Castex
$3K vol·-1%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Mathilde Panot
$2K vol·+2%·7d
3.3%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
François Ruffin
$2K vol·+11%·7d
44.5%
chance
Yes 45¢ · No 56¢
🇫🇷
Ségolène Royal
$2K vol
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Clémentine Autain
$2K vol·+0%·7d
3.5%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
$2K vol·+2%·7d
56.5%
chance
Yes 56¢ · No 44¢
🇫🇷
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
$2K vol·+1%·7d
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Sébastien Lecornu
$1K vol·-1%·7d
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🇫🇷
Manuel Valls
$1K vol·+1%·7d
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Élisabeth Borne
$994 vol
2.3%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇫🇷
Delphine Batho
$829 vol
2.6%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Valérie Pécresse
$681 vol·+2%·7d
4.6%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇫🇷
Yaël Braun-Pivet
$595 vol·+1%·7d
3.8%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Teddy Riner
$364 vol
3.5%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Michel Barnier
$2K vol·-0%·7d
1.9%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.