Monthly SpaceX launches: past results & live odds
Monthly SpaceX launches is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 4 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 3 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 3 of 3 (100%), priced at 93% on average.
Trading now
How many SpaceX launches in October 2026?<14 90% · 16 15% · 14 14% — resolves Nov 1, 2026 · $2K traded
- How many SpaceX launches in 2026? — 140-159 72%, 120-139 9%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many SpaceX launches in September 2026? | Oct 1, 2026 | <12 | >99% | <12 >99% — won |
| How many SpaceX launches in August 2026? | Sep 1, 2026 | 13 | 95% | 13 95% — won |
| How many SpaceX launches in June 2026? | Jun 29, 2026 | 14+ | 90% | — |
| How many SpaceX launches in May? | Jun 1, 2026 | 12 | 85% | 12 85% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.