Chinese AI #1: past results & live odds
Chinese AI #1 is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 8 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 8 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 7 of 8 (88%), priced at 95% on average.
Trading now
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Xiaomi 43% · Alibaba 29% · Moonshot 12% — resolves Oct 31, 2026 · $192K traded
- Best Chinese AI Company end of November? — Alibaba 36%, Xiaomi 31%
- Best Chinese AI Company end of December? — Alibaba 39%, Moonshot 21%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Chinese AI Company end of September? | Sep 30, 2026 | Xiaomi | 95% | Xiaomi 95% — won |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of August? | Sep 28, 2026 | Alibaba | 99% | Alibaba 99% — won |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of July? | Jul 31, 2026 | Alibaba | 73% | Alibaba 73% — won |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | Jul 4, 2026 | No | >99% | No >99% — won |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of June? | Jun 30, 2026 | Alibaba | 97% | Alibaba 97% — won |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of May? | Jun 1, 2026 | Alibaba | 98% | Alibaba 98% — won |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of April? | Apr 30, 2026 | Baidu | <1% | Alibaba 99% — lost |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | Jan 1, 2026 | No | >99% | No >99% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.