Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?
Resolved: No · Jan 1, 2026
24 hours before close (Dec 30, 2025, 00:00 UTC), the market's favorite was No at >99% — it won. $268K traded over the life of the market. Resolution source: the rules below.
| Outcome | Odds 24h before close | Settled |
|---|---|---|
| No | >99% | Won · 100% |
| Yes | <1% | 0% |
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.