Which company has the third best AI model end of December?
Resolved: Google · Dec 31, 2025
24 hours before close (Dec 30, 2025, 00:00 UTC), the market's favorite was Google at 97% — it won. $399K traded over the life of the market. Resolution source: the rules below.
| Outcome | Odds 24h before close | Settled |
|---|---|---|
| 97% | Won · 100% | |
| Z.ai | 2% | 0% |
| xAI | 2% | 0% |
| OpenAI | <1% | 0% |
| Alibaba | <1% | 0% |
| DeepSeek | <1% | 0% |
| Moonshot | <1% | 0% |
| Anthropic | <1% | 0% |
| Baidu | <1% | 0% |
| Meituan | <1% | 0% |
| Mistral | — | 0% |
| Company A | — | 0% |
+13 more outcomes, all settled at 0%.
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.