All events
Politics · 13 markets

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Vol total$2K
Vol 24h$26K
Liquidity$751
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
September 18
$367 vol
45.0%
chance
Yes 45¢ · No 55¢
🎯
September 21
$306 vol
71.0%
chance
Yes 71¢ · No 29¢
🎯
September 22
$303 vol
71.5%
chance
Yes 72¢ · No 28¢
🎯
September 24
$294 vol
56.5%
chance
Yes 56¢ · No 44¢
🎯
September 19
$265 vol
43.5%
chance
Yes 44¢ · No 56¢
🎯
September 20
$232 vol
46.0%
chance
Yes 46¢ · No 54¢
🎯
September 23
$206 vol
29.0%
chance
Yes 29¢ · No 71¢
🎯
September 26
$120 vol
38.5%
chance
Yes 39¢ · No 62¢
🎯
September 27
$119 vol
54.5%
chance
Yes 55¢ · No 46¢
🎯
September 28
$104 vol
49.0%
chance
Yes 49¢ · No 51¢
🎯
September 25
$80 vol
49.0%
chance
Yes 49¢ · No 51¢
🎯
September 29
$74 vol
45.5%
chance
Yes 46¢ · No 55¢
🍂
September 30
$18 vol
45.0%
chance
Yes 45¢ · No 55¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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