All predictions

Politics · Ends Nov 30
On which November days will Saudi-led forces strike Yemen?
Each date is its own question: Yes if Saudi Arabia, its coalition or Yemen's recognized government carries out a qualifying strike in Yemen that day.
On Polymarket as “Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?”
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on: past results and how often the favorite won →What do you think happens?
Each line is its own yes-or-no question.
Nov 5▲ 9 today
Nov 6▲ 14 today
Nov 21▲ 26 today
Nov 7▲ 6 today
Nov 10▼ 1 today
Nov 8▲ 5 today
Nov 12▲ 5 today
Nov 18
Nov 17▲ 2 today
Nov 15
Nov 19
Nov 11
Nov 13
Nov 29▲ 3 today
Nov 14▼ 2 today
Nov 16▼ 2 today
Nov 22
Nov 9▼ 2 today
Nov 20▼ 2 today
Nov 23▼ 4 today
Nov 24
Nov 25▼ 1 today
Nov 26▼ 1 today
Nov 27▼ 1 today
Nov 30▲ 2 today
Nov 28▼ 14 today
Your money, explained
Put $10 on “Nov 5” at 98% → if it happens you get $10.18 (+$0.18). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.
How it's decided
Settled by official statements from the parties involved and the Houthis, plus credible reporting, using Yemen Standard Time dates.
Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia or the armed forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, including forces formally under the Presidential Leadership Council, whether or not operating as part of the Saudi-led coalition. A strike will qualify if it is attributed to any of these parties, regardless of which of them conducted it. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or other proxy forces will not qualify.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and armed forces of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s internationally recognized government and its armed forces, the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.
$117K traded since it opened · $36K today
