Politics · Ends Dec 31

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

The market gives “Yes” a 13% chance (up 2.0 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

13%chance of Yes, according to the market▲ 2 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 13% → if it happens you get $80.00 (+$70.00). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$161K traded since it opened · $510 today