Politics · 10 markets
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Vol total$123K
Vol 24h$375
Liquidity$93K
Resolves123d
Outcomes · most likely first
🎯
300-400k
$15K vol·-2%·7d
16.5%
chance
Yes 17¢ · No 84¢
🎯
400-500k
$8K vol·-4%·7d
57.5%
chance
Yes 57¢ · No 43¢
🎯
>1m
$7K vol·-0%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎯
500-600k
$7K vol·+5%·7d
14.0%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🎯
700-800k
$42K vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
800-900k
$13K vol·+0%·7d
1.3%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
<200k
$10K vol·-0%·7d
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎯
200-300k
$10K vol
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
900k-1m
$7K vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
600-700k
$6K vol
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
Resolution rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.