Politics · Ends Feb 28

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

400-500k is the favorite at 39% (down 27.5 points in 24 hours), then 300-400k at 6% and 200-300k at 4%.

Deportation Count: past results and how often the favorite won →

What do you think happens?

Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.

400-500k▼ 28 today

300-400k▼ 5 today

200-300k

900k-1m

>1m▲ 2 today

600-700k

<200k

700-800k

800-900k

Show 1 more under 1%

500-600k▼ 12 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “400-500k” at 39% → if it happens you get $25.64 (+$15.64). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (ice.gov) when the question closes on Feb 28, 2027, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

$134K traded since it opened · $2K today