ECB Interest Rates: March 2025
Resolved: 25 bps decrease · Mar 6, 2025
24 hours before close (Mar 5, 2025, 12:00 UTC), the market's favorite was 25 bps decrease at 99% — it won. $952K traded over the life of the market. Resolution source: the rules below.
| Outcome | Odds 24h before close | Settled |
|---|---|---|
| 25 bps decrease | 99% | Won · 100% |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0% |
| No Change | <1% | 0% |
| Increase | <1% | 0% |
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.