First To Leave Trump Cabinet: past results & live odds
First To Leave Trump Cabinet is a yearly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 6 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 4 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 3 of 4 (75%), priced at 72% on average.
Trading now
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?None before 2027 53% · Pete Hegseth 8% · Susie Wiles 7% — resolves Jan 1, 2027 · $97K traded
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? | May 23, 2026 | Tulsi Gabbard | 40% | Tulsi Gabbard 40% — won |
| Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? | Apr 23, 2026 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 100% | Lori Chavez-DeRemer 100% — won |
| Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? | Apr 2, 2026 | Pam Bondi | — | Lori Chavez-DeRemer 50% — lost |
| Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? | Mar 5, 2026 | Kristi Noem | 22% | — |
| Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet? | Feb 4, 2026 | Stephen Miran | 4% | — |
| Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? | Jan 1, 2026 | None in 2025 | >99% | None in 2025 >99% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.