🌍OtherClosed Jan 31, 2026·Volume $157.3M
US government shutdown Saturday?
ResolvedYES
7d before8.5%
3d before72.5%
24h before41.0%Brier 0.348
At close86.5%Brier 0.018
Forecast trajectory · last 14 days
YES-token mid price over time. Resolved YES at $1.
Lock-in: market crossed ≥80% 4.5d before close.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).