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🏛️PoliticsClosed Nov 5, 2024·Volume $1.53B

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

ResolvedYES
7d before66.3%
3d before58.0%
24h before57.0%Brier 0.184
At close62.7%Brier 0.139

Forecast trajectory · last 14 days

YES-token mid price over time. Resolved YES at $1.

51%55%60%65%69%Oct 22Oct 25Oct 28Oct 30Nov 2Nov 5

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.