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🏛️PoliticsClosed Feb 28, 2026·Volume $131.1M

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

ResolvedYES
7d before4.0%
3d before1.8%
24h before1.6%Brier 0.969
At close1.9%Brier 0.962

Forecast trajectory · last 14 days

YES-token mid price over time. Resolved YES at $1.

0%3%6%9%11%Feb 14Feb 16Feb 19Feb 22Feb 25Feb 27

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.