Politics · Ends Dec 31

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

The market gives “Yes” a 10% chance (up 0.6 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

10%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 10% → if it happens you get $103.63 (+$93.63). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

$190K traded since it opened · $6K today