All predictions

Politics · Ends Dec 31

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 7% (up 1.8 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

7%chance of Yes, according to the market▲ 2 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 7% → if it happens you get $139.86 (+$129.86). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (storymaps.arcgis.com) when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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