Politics · Ends Dec 31

Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?

Most likely: June 30, 2027 at 69% (up 15.0 points in 24 hours), then March 31, 2027 at 47% and December 31, 2026 at 13%.

What do you think happens?

Each line is its own yes-or-no question.

June 30, 2027▲ 15 today

March 31, 2027▼ 4 today

December 31, 2026▲ 3 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “June 30, 2027” at 69% → if it happens you get $14.60 (+$4.60). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result. Each answer closes on its own date, shown when you pick it.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$101K traded since it opened · $3K today