All predictions

Politics · Ends Dec 31

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

The market gives “Yes” a 9% chance (up 2.5 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

9%chance of Yes, according to the market▲ 3 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 9% → if it happens you get $111.11 (+$101.11). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

$145K traded since it opened · $977 today

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