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Climate · binary

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Vol total$340K
Vol 24h$322
Liquidity$953
Resolves134d

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Prediction

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Your pick: Yes — each share pays $1 if Yes wins.

Bets from $1 · deposits start at $3.

SideYes
Price$0.1550
Shares (est)32.26
Spend$5.00
Capital back$5.00
Profit if Yes wins+$27.26
If Yes wins pays$32.26
Connecting your wallet… (usually under 2s)

You sign every order from your embedded wallet. Vectorial Data never holds your funds.

Price history-2.50% · 1W
14%15%17%19%21%Aug 12Aug 14Aug 15Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19

Resolution rules

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.