Politics · 4 markets

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate is the favorite at 62% (up 0.1 points in 24 hours), then No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 32% and Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate at 3%.

$115K traded · $18K in 24h · $1.3M liquidity · resolves in 20 days

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first4 questions

Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Nov 4, 2026.

Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Nov 4, 2026.

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Nov 4, 2026.

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Nov 4, 2026.

Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.