Politics · Ends Nov 3

Which party wins the Senate, given a Hormuz agreement and oil prices?

Combines which party controls the Senate after the midterms with whether a Hormuz agreement is reached and oil falls below $80; only one combination can win.

On Polymarket as “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?”

What do you think happens?

Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.

No deal or oil $80+; Democrats▲ 2 today

No deal or oil $80+; Republicans

Deal and oil under $80; Democrats

Deal and oil under $80; Republicans▼ 1 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “No deal or oil $80+; Democrats” at 60% → if it happens you get $16.57 (+$6.57). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

The rules are in a linked PDF document, which this event description does not spell out, so the exact source and timing are not stated.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

$131K traded since it opened · $65K today