All events
Politics · 40 markets

Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

Vol total$3K
Vol 24h$7K
Liquidity$17K
Resolves28d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇻🇪
Nicolás Maduro
$1K vol
86.0%
chance
Yes 86¢ · No 14¢
🇺🇸
Barack Obama
$279 vol
91.0%
chance
Yes 91¢ · No 9¢
🇺🇸
James Talarico
$279 vol
88.9%
chance
Yes 89¢ · No 11¢
🇺🇸
Kathy Hochul
$232 vol
86.5%
chance
Yes 87¢ · No 14¢
🇨🇦
Mark Carney
$100 vol
64.5%
chance
Yes 65¢ · No 36¢
🇺🇸
Abdul El-Sayed
$98 vol
55.5%
chance
Yes 56¢ · No 45¢
🎯
Elizabeth Warren
$96 vol
76.0%
chance
Yes 76¢ · No 24¢
🇺🇸
Kaitlan Collins
$94 vol
41.0%
chance
Yes 41¢ · No 59¢
🇺🇸
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$84 vol
69.0%
chance
Yes 69¢ · No 31¢
🇺🇸
J.B. Pritzker
$84 vol
69.5%
chance
Yes 70¢ · No 31¢
🇺🇸
Jerome Powell
$80 vol
19.5%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 81¢
🇺🇸
Jon Ossoff
$80 vol
58.5%
chance
Yes 59¢ · No 42¢
🇬🇧
Andy Burnham
$60 vol
21.0%
chance
Yes 21¢ · No 79¢
🇺🇸
Zohran Mamdani
$60 vol
33.0%
chance
Yes 33¢ · No 67¢
🇸🇮
Melania Trump
$45 vol
2.5%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇺🇸
Hillary Clinton
$44 vol
53.0%
chance
Yes 53¢ · No 47¢
🇺🇸
Kevin Warsh
$41 vol
33.5%
chance
Yes 34¢ · No 67¢
🇺🇸
Jimmy Kimmel
$40 vol
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🇺🇸
Adam Schiff
$40 vol
57.0%
chance
Yes 57¢ · No 43¢
🇫🇷
Emmanuel Macron
$20 vol
46.0%
chance
Yes 46¢ · No 54¢
🇩🇪
Friedrich Merz
$20 vol
22.5%
chance
Yes 23¢ · No 78¢
🎯
Ilhan Omar
$20 vol
60.5%
chance
Yes 61¢ · No 40¢
🇺🇸
Letitia James
$20 vol
78.0%
chance
Yes 78¢ · No 22¢
🇺🇸
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$20 vol
79.5%
chance
Yes 80¢ · No 21¢
🎙️
Tucker Carlson
$0 vol
71.5%
chance
Yes 72¢ · No 28¢
🇺🇸
Megyn Kelly
$0 vol
20.0%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 80¢
🇺🇸
Candace Owens
$0 vol
32.0%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 68¢
🇺🇸
Alex Jones
$0 vol
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢
🇻🇦
Pope Leo XIV
$0 vol
11.5%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 89¢
🇷🇺
Vladimir Putin
$0 vol
32.0%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 68¢
🇺🇸
Pam Bondi
$0 vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🇮🇱
Benjamin Netanyahu
$0 vol
31.0%
chance
Yes 31¢ · No 69¢
🇺🇸
J.D. Vance
$0 vol
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
🇨🇳
Xi Jinping
$0 vol
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🚀
Elon Musk
$0 vol
21.5%
chance
Yes 22¢ · No 79¢
🇺🇸
Norah O'Donnell
$0 vol
17.5%
chance
Yes 18¢ · No 83¢
🇸🇦
Mohammed bin Salman
$0 vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🇺🇸
Karoline Leavitt
$0 vol
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
🎯
Stephen Colbert
$0 vol
37.5%
chance
Yes 38¢ · No 63¢
🇺🇸
Joe Biden
$234 vol
99.6%
chance
Yes 100¢ · No 0¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

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