All events
Politics · 8 markets

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Vol total$3K
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$47K
Resolves134d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇩🇪
AfD
$1K vol
4.2%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🟡
FW
$573 vol
3.1%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇩🇪
BSW
$280 vol
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🔴
Linke
$234 vol
70.5%
chance
Yes 71¢ · No 30¢
🇩🇪
CDU
$149 vol
42.0%
chance
Yes 42¢ · No 58¢
🇩🇪
FDP
$146 vol
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇩🇪
SPD
$104 vol
87.5%
chance
Yes 88¢ · No 13¢
🟢
Grüne
$83 vol
88.0%
chance
Yes 88¢ · No 12¢

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.