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Tech & AI · Ends Dec 2027

Which Millennium Prize Problem will an AI lab announce it has solved first?

An eligible AI lab announces it has solved a Millennium Prize Problem by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; only one answer can win.

On Polymarket as “Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?”

What do you think happens?

Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.

No solution by Dec 31, 2027▲ 4 today
Yang-Mills▲ 2 today
Hodge Conjecture▼ 6 today
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer▲ 4 today
Riemann Hypothesis
P versus NP

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “No solution by Dec 31, 2027” at 38% → if it happens you get $26.67 (+$16.67). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

Official announcements from eligible AI labs or their representatives, with credible reporting also possible, by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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