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Politics · 32 markets

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

Vol total$24K
Vol 24h$348
Liquidity$152K
Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🌍
Other
$4K vol
5.1%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇷🇴
PSD + UDMR
$3K vol·+2%·7d
7.8%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🇭🇺
UDMR
$2K vol
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$2K vol·-7%·7d
19.3%
chance
Yes 19¢ · No 81¢
🇷🇴
UDMR + AUR
$676 vol
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
PSD + USR
$539 vol
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$538 vol·-0%·7d
2.5%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
USR + UDMR
$525 vol·+1%·7d
4.1%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇴
PSD + USR + UDMR
$513 vol
4.7%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$469 vol
3.6%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇴
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$459 vol
3.6%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇴
PNL + USR + UDMR
$448 vol
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$430 vol
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇧🇷
PSD
$428 vol·+31%·7d
36.0%
chance
Yes 36¢ · No 64¢
🇷🇴
PNL + UDMR
$378 vol
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
PSD + AUR
$325 vol·+5%·7d
8.8%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🇷🇴
PNL + USR
$309 vol·-0%·7d
9.4%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🇷🇴
PNL
$303 vol·+0%·7d
4.1%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + USR
$182 vol
3.6%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL
$176 vol
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + AUR
$128 vol
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 97¢
🇷🇴
USR
$2K vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
USR + AUR
$707 vol
0.8%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
AUR
$695 vol
1.7%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇷🇴
USR + UDMR + AUR
$621 vol
1.0%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$508 vol
1.4%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PNL + AUR
$472 vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$408 vol
1.0%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$382 vol
1.0%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$379 vol
1.0%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PNL + USR + AUR
$361 vol
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇷🇴
PSD + USR + AUR
$361 vol
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.

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