All predictions
Culture · Ends Jan 2
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?
Most likely: Nicki Minaj at 44% (down 0.5 points in 24 hours), then JAY-Z at 28% and Frank Ocean at 14%.
What do you think happens?
Each line is its own yes-or-no question.
Nicki Minaj
JAY-Z▲ 2 today
Frank Ocean
Your money, explained
Put $10 on “Nicki Minaj” at 44% → if it happens you get $22.78 (+$12.78). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.
How it's decided
It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Jan 2, 2027, US Eastern time.
Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances or leaks) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, remixes, or alternate versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count.
If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them.
For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution.
The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
$151K traded since it opened · $797 today