All events
Tech & AI · 13 markets

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Vol total$3K
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$12K
Resolves48d

Outcomes · most likely first

🌙
Moonshot
$996 vol
4.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇨🇳
Alibaba
$758 vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🤖
Z.ai
$500 vol
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
📱
ByteDance
$340 vol
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🇨🇳
Baidu
$287 vol
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🛒
Amazon
$129 vol
11.5%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 89¢
🇨🇳
Meituan
$80 vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🪟
Microsoft
$52 vol
36.5%
chance
Yes 37¢ · No 64¢
🇨🇳
DeepSeek
$44 vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🇫🇷
Mistral
$42 vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🔵
Google
$33 vol
42.5%
chance
Yes 43¢ · No 57¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$0 vol
32.5%
chance
Yes 33¢ · No 68¢
👁️
Meta
$0 vol
14.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢

Resolution rules

On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.