All events
Tech & AI · 15 markets

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Vol total$5K
Vol 24h$5K
Liquidity$10K
Resolves47d

Outcomes · most likely first

🪟
Microsoft
$1K vol
15.5%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 85¢
🛒
Amazon
$961 vol
14.0%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$925 vol
16.5%
chance
Yes 17¢ · No 84¢
👁️
Meta
$733 vol
15.5%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 85¢
🔵
Google
$420 vol
13.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 87¢
🤖
Z.ai
$108 vol
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🌙
Moonshot
$92 vol
11.5%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 89¢
🇨🇳
Baidu
$91 vol
11.0%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
🇨🇳
DeepSeek
$86 vol
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🇨🇳
Meituan
$84 vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
📱
ByteDance
$64 vol
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🇫🇷
Mistral
$63 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🇨🇳
Alibaba
$46 vol
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🧠
OpenAI
$20 vol
11.5%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 89¢
🤖
Anthropic
$20 vol
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢

Resolution rules

On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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