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Climate · 19 markets

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Vol total$10K
Vol 24h$10K
Liquidity$11K
Resolves111d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇬🇪
Georgia
$2K vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🎯
Maine
$1K vol
3.0%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🎯
Massachusetts
$1K vol
3.0%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇺🇸
Maryland
$952 vol
2.5%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎯
New Hampshire
$817 vol
3.0%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇺🇸
New York
$770 vol
2.4%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇺🇸
Alabama
$683 vol
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🇺🇸
Virginia
$458 vol
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
Connecticut
$430 vol
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🎯
Delaware
$411 vol
3.3%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🎯
Mississippi
$301 vol
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
Rhode Island
$274 vol
3.8%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇺🇸
South Carolina
$262 vol
10.0%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🇺🇸
Florida
$234 vol
25.5%
chance
Yes 26¢ · No 75¢
🇺🇸
Louisiana
$203 vol
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢
🤠
Texas
$88 vol
16.0%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 84¢
North Carolina
$40 vol
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🇺🇸
New Jersey
$21 vol
4.3%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🎯
Hawaii
$0 vol
10.5%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 90¢

Resolution rules

This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution. If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.