All events
Tech & AI · 11 markets

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

Vol total$904
Vol 24h$318
Liquidity$2K
Resolves75d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
No release by November 1
$238 vol
52.0%
chance
Yes 52¢ · No 48¢
🎯
Prior to August 31
$104 vol
4.7%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
September 7–September 13
$90 vol
17.5%
chance
Yes 18¢ · No 83¢
🎯
October 26–November 1
$70 vol
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🎯
October 19–October 25
$62 vol
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🎯
September 28–October 4
$57 vol
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🎯
October 12–October 18
$57 vol
13.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 87¢
🎯
September 14–September 20
$57 vol
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
September 21–September 27
$57 vol
15.0%
chance
Yes 15¢ · No 85¢
🎯
October 5–October 11
$57 vol
16.5%
chance
Yes 17¢ · No 84¢
🎯
August 31–September 6
$57 vol
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.