All predictions

Politics · Ends Dec 31
US x Russia military clash by...?
Most likely: December 31, 2026 at 3% (up 0.3 points in 24 hours).
What do you think?
Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't
3%chance of Yes, according to the market
Your money, explained
Put $10 on Yes at 3% → if it happens you get $322.58 (+$312.58). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.
How it's decided
It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.
Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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