Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.
Politics · 5 markets
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
Vol total$458
Vol 24h$458
Liquidity$18K
Resolves99d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first5 questions
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.