Politics · Ends Dec 31

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Most likely: December 31, 2026 at 5% (down 0.1 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

5%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 5% → if it happens you get $200.00 (+$190.00). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

$806K traded since it opened · $5K today