All predictions

Politics · Ends Nov 3

TX-06 House Election Winner

Jake Ellzey (R) is the favorite at 99% (up 3.9 points in 24 hours), then Danny Minton (D) at 1%.

What do you think happens?

Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.

Jake Ellzey (R)▲ 4 today
Danny Minton (D)▼ 2 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “Jake Ellzey (R)” at 99% → if it happens you get $10.12 (+$0.12). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (fec.gov) when the question closes on Nov 3, 2026, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

$115K traded since it opened · $27K today

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.