Politics · Ends Dec 31

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 12% (down 1.0 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

12%chance of Yes, according to the market▼ 1 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 12% → if it happens you get $86.96 (+$76.96). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$141K traded since it opened · $2K today