Outcomes · most likely first 11 questions
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $805 on October 7?most traded YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES2.1% chance $10 → $465.12+$455.12 profit if rightNO97.9% chance $10 → $10.22+$0.22 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES5% chance $10 → $200.00+$190.00 profit if rightNO95% chance $10 → $10.53+$0.53 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES90% chance $10 → $11.11+$1.11 profit if rightNO10% chance $10 → $100.00+$90.00 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES90% chance $10 → $11.11+$1.11 profit if rightNO10% chance $10 → $100.00+$90.00 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES45% chance $10 → $22.22+$12.22 profit if rightNO55% chance $10 → $18.18+$8.18 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES10.5% chance $10 → $95.24+$85.24 profit if rightNO89.5% chance $10 → $11.17+$1.17 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES87% chance $10 → $11.49+$1.49 profit if rightNO13% chance $10 → $76.92+$66.92 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES90% chance $10 → $11.11+$1.11 profit if rightNO10% chance $10 → $100.00+$90.00 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $800 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES5.9% chance $10 → $170.94+$160.94 profit if rightNO94.2% chance $10 → $10.62+$0.62 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES95.5% chance $10 → $10.47+$0.47 profit if rightNO4.5% chance $10 → $222.22+$212.22 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 7?YES It happens NO It doesn't
YES5% chance $10 → $200.00+$190.00 profit if rightNO95% chance $10 → $10.53+$0.53 profit if right
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 7, 2026.