Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first10 questions
Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Philippe Brun win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Karim Bouamrane win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Jérôme Guedj win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Carole Delga win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Oct 10, 2026.
Resolution rules
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.
If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.