All events
Politics · 13 markets

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

Vol total$1K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$1K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
September 21
$613 vol
36.5%
chance
Yes 37¢ · No 64¢
🎯
September 22
$170 vol
20.0%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 80¢
🎯
September 20
$142 vol
33.5%
chance
Yes 34¢ · No 67¢
🎯
September 23
$132 vol
34.0%
chance
Yes 34¢ · No 66¢
🎯
September 19
$85 vol
37.5%
chance
Yes 38¢ · No 63¢
🎯
September 18
$60 vol
50.0%
chance
Yes 50¢ · No 50¢
🎯
September 24
$0 vol
28.0%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🎯
September 25
$0 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🎯
September 26
$0 vol
27.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 73¢
🎯
September 27
$0 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🎯
September 28
$0 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🎯
September 29
$0 vol
23.5%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 77¢
🍂
September 30
$0 vol
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.