Politics · Ends Dec 31

Satoshi's identity be proven by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 2% (down 0.1 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

2%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 2% → if it happens you get $500.00 (+$490.00). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

$2.0M traded since it opened · $1K today