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Plague case in US by December 31?

Vol total$1K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$562
Resolves87d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first1 question

Plague case in US by December 31?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the United States includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A case qualifies if the patient is diagnosed in the United States, regardless of where the infection was acquired. Cases diagnosed outside the United States, including in U.S. citizens abroad, do not qualify. The case does not need to be epidemiologically linked to the Irkutsk outbreak or any other specific outbreak to qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state or local public health authorities, and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.