🎯Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 2, 2026.
Climate · 6 markets
October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Vol total$432
Vol 24h$386
Liquidity$704
Resolves56d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first6 questions
🎯Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 2, 2026.
🎯Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 2, 2026.
🎯Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 2, 2026.
🎯Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 2, 2026.
🎯Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Dec 2, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.