🔥Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 29, 2026.
Climate · 4 markets
October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
Vol total$2K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$9K
Resolves55d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first4 questions
☀️Will October 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 29, 2026.
🌡️Will October 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 29, 2026.
❄️Will October 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Nov 29, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.