All events
Tech & AI · 16 markets

Next Claude Opus released on...?

Vol total$2K
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$3K
Resolves15d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
September 20
$447 vol
25.0%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 75¢
🎯
September 26
$447 vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🎯
September 27
$447 vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🎯
September 17
$397 vol
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🎯
On or prior to September 16
$68 vol
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 97¢
🎯
September 18
$0 vol
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🎯
September 21
$0 vol
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🎯
September 22
$0 vol
9.0%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🎯
September 23
$0 vol
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
September 24
$0 vol
19.0%
chance
Yes 19¢ · No 81¢
🎯
September 25
$0 vol
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🎯
September 28
$0 vol
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢
🎯
September 29
$0 vol
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🍂
September 30
$0 vol
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
No release by September 30
$0 vol
15.0%
chance
Yes 15¢ · No 85¢
🎯
September 19
$447 vol
0.6%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.