Politics · 13 markets

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Vol total$5K

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$120K

Resolves472d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$2K vol

53.5%

chance

Yes 54¢ · No 47¢

🎯

Markus Söder

$649 vol

13.0%

chance

Yes 13¢ · No 87¢

🎯

Boris Pistorius

$476 vol

7.5%

chance

Yes 8¢ · No 93¢

🎯

Felix Banaszak

$340 vol

4.0%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

🎯

Hendrik Wüst

$275 vol

16.5%

chance

Yes 17¢ · No 84¢

🎯

Alice Weidel

$200 vol

4.4%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

🎯

Katharina Dröge

$156 vol

5.5%

chance

Yes 6¢ · No 95¢

🎯

Tino Chrupalla

$153 vol

4.1%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

🎯

Sahra Wagenknecht

$146 vol

2.5%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Jens Spahn

$145 vol

5.9%

chance

Yes 6¢ · No 94¢

🇩🇪

Carsten Linnemann

$128 vol

2.9%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

🎯

Lars Klingbeil

$128 vol

3.8%

chance

Yes 4¢ · No 96¢

🎯

Heidi Reichinnek

$120 vol

3.0%

chance

Yes 3¢ · No 97¢

Resolution rules

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.