Politics · Ends Dec 31

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Most likely: December 31, 2026 at 10% (up 0.4 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

10%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 10% → if it happens you get $105.26 (+$95.26). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

$948K traded since it opened · $2K today