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Climate · binary

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Vol total$18K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$888
Resolves119d

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Prediction

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Your pick: Yes — each share pays $1 if Yes wins.

Bets from $1 · deposits start at $3.

SideYes
Price$0.0725
Shares (est)68.97
Spend$5.00
Capital back$5.00
Profit if Yes wins+$63.97
If Yes wins pays$68.97
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Price history-1.45% · 1W
5%7%10%13%15%Aug 29Aug 30Aug 31Sep 2Sep 3Sep 5

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.