Politics · Ends Dec 31

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 6% (up 0.5 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

6%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 6% → if it happens you get $166.67 (+$156.67). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (reuters.com) when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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