All events
Politics · 3 markets

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Vol total$8.4M
Vol 24h$4K
Liquidity$173K
Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🍂
September 30
$252K vol·+1%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🎆
December 31
$193K vol·-3%·7d
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🎯
August 31
$649K vol·-0%·7d
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.